2022 World Conference on Lung Cancer (Posters)-P1.08-01. Updated Costs and Survival Expectations for Stage IV Lung Cancer in Australia

Pdf Summary

A study conducted by Preston Ngoa et al. aimed to provide updated estimates on costs and survival expectations for stage IV lung cancer in Australia. The researchers developed a discrete event simulation model called txSim to simulate the treatment of stage IV lung cancer over multiple lines of therapy.<br /><br />The model incorporated inputs such as progression-free survival (PFS) from clinical trials, prevalence of histological subtypes and biomarkers, and Australian healthcare costs. The prevalence of histological subtypes and biomarkers was obtained from datasets on the cBioPortal.<br /><br />The study found that among patients receiving first-line therapy, the costs and survival outcomes were highest for ALK-rearranged, ROS1-rearranged, and EGFR NSCLC, with 10-year costs ranging from AU$325,000 to AU$524,000 per patient. In contrast, patients with wild-type NSCLC had 10-year costs of AU$179,000. Despite the availability of immune checkpoint inhibitors, outcomes for SCLC remained poor, with 10-year costs of AU$122,000.<br /><br />The model reproduced real-world survival outcomes from 11 studies of NSCLC, SCLC, EGFR NSCLC, ALK-rearranged NSCLC, and immunotherapy for NSCLC. Under contemporary care, the mean costs at 10 years were predicted to rise to AU$116,000. However, prognosis remained poor due to low rates of treatment utilization.<br /><br />The study also highlighted the sensitivity of costs to assumptions about treatment utilization and duration. Assuming optimal treatment rates, 10-year costs rose to AU$154,000. Subsidizing immunotherapy beyond 24 months increased 10-year costs to AU$134,000.<br /><br />The estimates produced in this study are valuable for budget planning and the re-evaluation of lung cancer control strategies in Australia. The findings indicate a dramatic increase in treatment costs for stage IV lung cancer in recent years and emphasize the need for up-to-date data in health system planning and economic evaluations. The study was funded by a research grant and acknowledged several organizations for their support.

Asset Subtitle

Preston Ngo, Australia

Meta Tag

Speaker Preston Ngo, Australia

Topic Global Health, Health Services Research, and Health Economics - Cost Issues

Keywords

stage IV lung cancer

Australia

costs

survival expectations

discrete event simulation model

txSim

progression-free survival

histological subtypes

biomarkers

healthcare costs