WCLC 2025 - Posters & ePosters-P1.04.07 Projection of the Lung Cancer Screening Eligible Population in Argentina From 2000 to 2050

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This study projects the population eligible for lung cancer screening (LCS) in Argentina from 2000 to 2050 using a microsimulation model based on Argentina-specific smoking histories. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in Argentina, where over 20% of adults still smoke, but no national LCS guidelines exist.<br /><br />The researchers used two established screening criteria to estimate eligibility: the 2021 USPSTF guidelines (ages 50–80, ≥20 pack-years, current smokers or quit within 15 years) and the NLST criteria (ages 55–74, ≥30 pack-years, similar smoking status). The model projected the number and percentage of people eligible by year under these scenarios.<br /><br />Results showed that under the 2021 USPSTF criteria, approximately 1.6 million people were eligible from 2018 to 2036, declining to 1.3 million by 2050. The percentage of people aged 50–80 eligible for screening declined from 14.8% in 2020 to 7.8% in 2050. Under the stricter NLST criteria, the eligible population plateaued at about 0.8 million from 2016 to 2024 before decreasing to 0.6 million by 2050, with the percentage aged 55–74 dropping from 10.9% to 5.3%.<br /><br />The decline in eligibility reflects decreasing smoking prevalence but highlights that hundreds of thousands will remain eligible by 2050, with about twice as many under the updated 2021 USPSTF guidelines due primarily to the lower pack-year requirement. The study emphasizes the urgent need for a national lung cancer screening program in Argentina to maximize early detection, reduce mortality, and limit healthcare costs. Without expanding screening to broader groups, demand for LCS will decline alongside eligibility.<br /><br />This modeling study was supported by IASLC and NIH grants and draws on extensive prior lung cancer risk and screening research.

Asset Subtitle

M. Victoria Salgado

Meta Tag

Speaker M. Victoria Salgado

Topic Screening and Early Detection

Keywords

lung cancer screening

Argentina

microsimulation model

smoking prevalence

2021 USPSTF guidelines

NLST criteria

population eligibility

cancer mortality

pack-year requirement

national screening program