WCLC 2025 - Posters & ePosters-P1.04.14 Age, Risk Thresholds and Cost-Effectiveness: Evaluating Lung Cancer Screening Using the PLCOm2012 Model

Pdf Summary

This study evaluates lung cancer (LC) screening using the PLCOm2012 risk prediction model in a German population-based setting, focusing on age groups ranging from 50 to 80 years and risk thresholds between 0.5% and 3%. Using a modular microsimulation approach, individual life histories were simulated to model lung cancer development, progression, and outcomes, drawing on demographic data from 2012 and smoking behavior from the German Health Update survey (2009-2012).<br /><br />Results demonstrate that higher risk thresholds (2.5-3%) yield higher numbers of prevented lung cancer deaths and life years gained (LYG) per 1000 screens, indicating more efficient targeting of high-risk individuals. However, these thresholds exclude many cases detectable at lower risk levels. Economic evaluation through Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICER) suggests that lower risk thresholds may still be cost-effective, offering a balance between health benefits and resource use.<br /><br />The study highlights the importance of tailored, risk-based screening policies that optimize public health outcomes while maintaining economic efficiency. Screening programs focused on higher risk thresholds prevent more deaths per screening but risk missing cases detectable at lower thresholds, emphasizing the need for individualized approaches. The analysis compares multiple screening outcomes such as prevented deaths, LYG, prevented deaths per 1000 screens, LYG per 1000 screens, and ICER, across various age and risk threshold categories within a 5-year lung cancer screening framework.<br /><br />Overall, the findings advocate for a nuanced, cost-effective lung cancer screening strategy using the PLCOm2012 model which considers individual risk profiles and age to maximize screening benefits in population health management.<br /><br />Key references include foundational lung cancer screening studies and economic evaluations from sources such as the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force and prior microsimulation analyses.

Asset Subtitle

Megha Sikarwar

Meta Tag

Speaker Megha Sikarwar

Topic Screening and Early Detection

Keywords

lung cancer screening

PLCOm2012 risk model

German population

age groups 50-80

risk thresholds 0.5%-3%

microsimulation modeling

life years gained

incremental cost-effectiveness ratio

risk-based screening policy

economic evaluation